Spain | Regional GDP growth: 1st estimate of the 2020 Regional Accounts

Summary

The INE has published the first estimate of GDP growth in 2020 by autonomous communities in Spain. The results show that the growth hierarchy was in line with what was pointed out by BBVA Research, which anticipated greater strength in Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha and greater weakness in the isles and tourist regions.

Key points

• Key points:
• The results published by the INE suggest that, in general terms, in 2020 the fall in services impacted the regions most dependent on tourism and the movement of people.
• Above all, the lower growth in the islands stood out (Illes Balears: -21.7% and Canarias: -18.1%), Catalonia (-11.5%) and Madrid (-11.0%). On the other hand, the lesser relevance of commerce and hospitality allowed a GDP drop less marked in Extremadura (-7.4%), Castilla-La Mancha (-7.9%) and Murcia (-8.3%).
• The INE data is shown in line with the BBVA Research scenario. In particular, the hierarchy of GDP growth is almost identical (Correlation coefficient: 0.97). However, BBVA's forecasts Research show less variability.
• Furthermore, the impact of the crisis on the islands and it has been overestimated in Extremadura, Murcia and Navarra. The smallest forecast errors were recorded in Catalonia and Galicia (-0.3 and +0.3 respectively), Madrid and the Basque Country (-0.4 in both cases).

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