Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. October 2024

In 2024, prospects will improve, with service exporting communities benefiting most, while stagnant exports limit the progress of many industrial regions. In 2025, growth moderates and shifts to areas with less tourism weight.

Key points

• Key points:
• Upward revision of the GDP growth forecast in 2024 for Spain from 2.5% to 2.9%. The improvement is explained by the statistical revisions and a better than expected performance of the activity, both in internal and external demand.
• The communities with the greatest weight of foreign tourism and exports of non-tourist services lead the growth this year. This group would include the Balearic and Canary Islands (3.1%), Catalonia and the Community of Madrid (3.0%) and to a lesser extent the Valencian Community (3.0%).
• On the contrary, the weakness of industry, exports of goods and investment means that growth remains below average in La Rioja (2.7%), Navarra (2.5%), Asturias ( 2.4%), Cantabria (2.3 %) and the Basque Country (2.0%).
• The progress of activity in 2025 is expected to be somewhat better than anticipated a quarter ago due to a greater boost in service exports, although the prospect of a slowdown remains.
• The forecast for a rebound in investment and exports of goods already noted a quarter ago is confirmed, which implies fewer upward revisions in the North. The Basque Country and Navarra (2.8%) will lead the growth and Galicia (2.5%) will grow more than the average. The normalization of the weather situation and agricultural activity will allow Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia to position themselves among the most dynamic in 2025.

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