Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2023

GDP growth in 2024 is revised downwards for all peninsular regions. Greater corrections in the northern regions, but they will lead growth in 2024. In 2025, a general acceleration due to the improvement in domestic consumption and European demand: advantage for national tourism recipients.

Key points

• Key points:
• In 2023, the hierarchy remains practically unchanged and the increase in Spain's GDP (+2.4%) remains unchanged. The revisions due to the new information affect Murcia (+0.3 pp, up to 2.1%) and the Valencian Community (+0.2pp, up to 2.2%) upwards to a greater extent, and downwards to Extremadura (-0.3 pp, up to 2.0%), Navarra (-0.2 pp, up to 1.7%) and the Balearic Islands (-0.2 pp, up to 2.9%).
• The downward revision is explained by the worsening of activity in the eurozone, and that part of the industry suffers from high energy costs. Despite this, these are the ones that will generally show the greatest growth in 2024.
• The scenario for tourist regions is somewhat more optimistic than a few months ago, due to fewer restrictions and difficulties in competitors, which give tourism room for growth. The Balearic and Canary Islands are revised slightly upwards.
• The impact of the European slowdown on the Valencian industry and the drought in Catalonia and Andalusia justify major revisions in these communities.
• Generalized acceleration in 2025, in line with the EMU recovery, which will boost tourism and investment. The communities receiving national tourism will lead the growth (Valencia, Catalonia, Madrid and Andalusia), but also some industrial and exporting communities that have made less progress so far: Navarra and the Basque Country.

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