Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2021

Summary

Consumption remains dynamic, driving domestic tourism, allowing GDP to grow above average in 2021 in regions where coastal tourism is important. On the other hand, a lower than anticipated increase in investment and exports will affect activity in inland and northern regions.

Key points

• Key points:
• Growth continues to be very strong, reaching 5.2% in 2021.
• Household spending remains dynamic and facilitates an above-average increase in GDP in Andalusia, the Valencian Community and the Region of Murcia, as well as in the Balearic and Canary Islands. The difficulties in the recovery of urban tourism, on the other hand, partially hinder Madrid and Catalonia.
• The northern Spanish regions, on the other hand, continue to lag behind (except Galicia), limited by the lack of recovery in exports.
• Looking ahead, the key is the resolution of uncertainties. Growth will accelerate to 5.5% in 2022.
• The situation in the main European countries must be monitored to avoid internal outbreaks of the pandemic and to avoid incurring reputational risk. The Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Catalonia, Madrid and parts of Valencia and Andalusia could be the most affected.

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