Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. March 2024

In 2024, the prospects will improve in all the Autonomous Communities, driven by employment, domestic consumption and, above all, service exports. In 2025, the push will come from the industrial communities and the recovery of the south after the drought, with tourist communities losing momentum.

Key points

• Key points:
• Employment, consumption and tourism remain more dynamic than anticipated, while investment is limited by high interest rates and the low driving effect of NGEU funds. The Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Catalonia, Valencian Community and Madrid experience the largest upward revisions.
• In 2024, the smallest revisions occur in Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and Andalusia: the drought still continues to limit the recovery of employment and activity.
• In 2025, a less positive eurozone demand scenario limits the boost in foreign tourism, and a more restrictive fiscal policy will slow the growth of consumption.
• The reversal of the effects of the drought will allow the communities in the south of the peninsula to rebound in activity and grow again above the national average.

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