Spain | Outlook of the country's economy for 2021

Summary

Current global circumstances will enable the recovery of the Spanish economy to continue in 2021 and will mean that the speed of this recovery depends almost entirely on how successfully national public policies and the private sector manage their way out of the crisis.

Key points

• Key points:
• As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Spanish economy is about to close 2020 with the worst economic downturn since the end of the Spanish Civil War. The expected fall in GDP for this year will be around 11%.
• Fortunately, and unlike other recessions, the effects of the crisis may be more short-lived and recovery may be quicker.
• Although in the short term the recovery is being affected by the restrictions on movement and activity associated with the second wave taking place in Europe, its economic effects are not expected to compare to those of the first wave.
• Many risks still lie ahead and that recovery will not be complete within the next year. BBVA Research forecasts suggest that the Spanish economy will grow by 6% in 2021.
• The recovery of the Spanish economy depends fundamentally on domestic policies. This is why it is essential to meet a series of conditions required to speed up the recovery.

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