Spain | Not just the hospitality sector: other sectors affected by the COVID-19 crisis

Summary

BBVA Research has used decision trees to show that the difference in the Spanish provinces' productive structure was one of the fundamental determining factors in explaining the initial decrease in employment caused by the national lockdown.

Key points

• Key points:
• The greater or lesser weight of a particular productive sector in a province's economy was associated with a more marked annual decrease in affiliation in the first and strictest phase of the restrictive measures (April 2020).
• The results show that the provinces most affected were tourist areas (which were identified by a high weight of the hospitality sector) or alternatively, those that were highly dependent on the agricultural sector.
• On the contrary, the response was better in provinces where a large part of the economy was centered on the industrial sector or those that had a widely diverse service economy, such as the provinces where the large urban areas can be found.
• These factors were less relevant in the initial fall in employment during the housing and financial crisis of 2008–2009, with the most prominent factors at the time being the weight of the public sector (with favorable implications) and the banking sector (with unfavorable implications).
• Public policies that include these provincial particularities need to be developed so that the measures implemented are effective and in order to facilitate a stronger recovery.

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