Spain | Navarre Economic Outlook 2021

The GDP of Navarre could increase by 5.9% in 2021, and by 7.3% in 2022 (Spain: 6.5% and 7.0%). This would result in the creation of 11,000 jobs compared to the end of 2020, and a reduction in the unemployment rate by three tenths of a percentage point to 9.8% on average over the following year.

Key points

• Key points:
• It is estimated that the fall in Navarre's GDP in 2020 was 10.6%, 0.2 points less than in Spain as a whole (-10.8%). The contraction in activity in Navarre is mainly due to the poor performance of its exports, as well as the negative evolution of industry and tourism.
• The lower weight of the social consumption sectors and a lower exposure to tourism and less dependence on non-residents has meant that the impact of the crisis on the regional labour market has been lower. Social Security enrolment practically recovered to pre-crisis levels at the end of 2020.
• Despite the start of the year with a drop in activity (Brexit, oil, outbreaks of the pandemic), the second and third quarters have already seen a high level of dynamism. The end of the state of alarm, the progress in vaccination and the easing of restrictions, among others, have allowed private consumption growth to advance, mainly in services.
• The upturn in European markets has had an impact on the improvement in exports of Navarrese goods, but at a slower rate than in the rest of Spain.
• In 2022, the economy could accelerate its growth. This rebound will be supported by better disease control, the use of household savings, the approval of the Recovery Plan, the arrival of NGEU funds, the ECB's stimulus measures and a high level of unused productive capacity.

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