Spain | Murcia Economic Outlook 2022

Murcia's GDP grew by 5.2% in 2021. The sanctions imposed on the Russian economy, the increase in the price of raw materials and uncertainty reduce growth expectations. Even so, Murcia's GDP could grow by 4.1% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. By the end of 2023, GDP could exceed that of 2019 by almost 4%.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP growth in 2021 was boosted by the recovery of domestic tourism, household and business spending and the impact of public policies, both from the central and regional governments.
• Although the increase in activity will continue to be high over the next two years, the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine will weigh on the recovery. The risk of the impact of the war in Ukraine, via imports of affected products, is higher than in other Autonomous Regions due to the importance of fertilisers and fuels and the weight of European export markets.
• Several factors suggest that the number of tourists and the level of spending during the high season will be similar or higher than before the pandemic, especially in the beach regions. These include less uncertainty about health, the use of savings accumulated during confinement, and the attraction of visitors seeking destinations that provide security.
• By the end of 2023, activity in the region could exceed 2019 GDP by almost 4%, making it the second most dynamic region in this crisis, and the unemployment rate could fall by 4 pp over the two-year period, to 10.4% in 2023. GDP per capita will be 1.2% above the pre-crisis level.
• Public policies will be key to minimising the effects of the war, and the fall in electricity prices will be important. In the absence of an incomes pact, the uneven impact of inflation may increase social unrest. Uncertainty persists about investment linked to the NGEU and spending could leak into higher imports in the face of supply constraints.

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