Spain | Murcia Economic Outlook 2020

The GDP of Murcia may shrink by 10% this year and grow by 6% in 2021. Almost 6,000 jobs could be destroyed. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous in the first half of the year, as was the recovery. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but the risks bias the outlook downwards.

Key points

• Key points:
• The drop in activity this year is explained by the increase in uncertainty related to the pandemic, the introduction of containment and social distancing measures necessary to prevent contagion and its extension for a longer period than expected.
• The contraction of the region's GDP will be less than the Spanish average (-11.5%) due to its exposure to tourism and the other sectors of social consumption together with a comparatively better performance of industry and exports of goods, supported by food sales and a lesser contraction of those of energy products. All of this has also resulted in a lesser impact of the crisis on the labor market.
• The impact by gender or age on this crisis was different from what was observed in 2008: women and those over 35 have been more affected.
• By the end of 2021, Murcia's GDP could be 4.5% below the 2019 closing level.
• The development of a vaccine, the rapid use of NGEU-related funds, and associated structural reforms could lead to more positive scenarios.

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