Spain | La Rioja Economic Outlook 2024

Summary

La Rioja's GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, exceeding the pre-crisis level by 8%, and 2,600 new jobs will be created.

Key points

• Key points:
• In 2023, GDP could have increased by 2.3% after increasing by 5.5% in 2022. The good performance of the services sector, both tourism and the rest, and the strength of employment would have more than compensated for the weakness of the industry and exports of goods.
• Social Security affiliation shows a better evolution than expected, driven by activity in the urban area of ​​Logroño. Card spending is advancing more in transport, accommodation, leisure and restaurant services, supported by the good performance of consumption and tourism. Immigration is making it possible to partially offset the effects of population aging.
• La Rioja's GDP could increase by 2.5% in 2024 and advance by 2.4% in 2025 supported by the improvement of the European economy. The price of raw materials, the interest rate reduction process, the funds associated with the PRTR will help sustain public investment, and the expected recovery of activity in the main European partners should help boost industrial activity.
• If this scenario comes true, La Rioja's GDP could be 8% above the 2019 level, one of the most intense recoveries in Spain as a whole. In addition, the unemployment rate will be reduced to 8.4% on average in 2025 and 2,600 new jobs can be created by the end of next year.
• There are some risks: the stagnation of manufacturing exports may be reflecting structural problems in European industry. Attracting talent and training the unemployed is key to compensating for the shortage of labor in a tense labor market that is suffering from an aging population. Non-wage costs may continue to rise. Savings increase, without consumption reflecting increases proportional to those in income.

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