Spain | Impact of COVID-19 on the GDP of the Spanish regions in 2020: an initial estimate

This Working Paper presents an estimate of the performance of the monthly GDP of the autonomous communities, starting from the beginning of the pandemic, and a range of possible values for their total GDP in 2020.

Key points

• Key points:
• The pandemic has hit island communities particularly hard given their heavy dependence on the tourism sector. In particular, activity in the Balearic Islands was nearly 30 points below normal levels in September.
• Meanwhile, the agricultural sector plays a more important role in communities such as Extremadura, Murcia and Castile-La Mancha, which are less dependent on tourism. Their monthly GDPs have fallen by no more than 20 points and in September show losses that are clearly below 5 points.
• On a national level, GDP is expected to fall by between 10.6 and 11.9 percent in 2020. On a regional level, the expected differences between communities are enormous, with a range of more than 20 points between the different ends of the spectrum.

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