Spain | Gravity model with national tourism data in real time

In order to analyze national tourism flows in Spain and identify possible patterns and changes in preferences due to the pandemic, gravity models have been estimated using data on card spending by BBVA customers outside their usual province of residence in 2018-2021.

Key points

• Key points:
• Two models with dependent variables are proposed: travelers and spending. Each model is estimated with OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) and PPML (Poisson Pseudo Maximun Likelihood). All four models yield similar results.
• In line with the literature, the income and population of the travelers' province of origin, together with the distance between origin and destination, have a relevant effect on the selection of the tourist destination in the period analyzed.
• With the pandemic, the fact that the province of destination is coastal ceases to be relevant in the choice of destination (greater propensity for rural tourism) and, in addition, urban tourism in Madrid and Barcelona loses importance.
• The prices at origin (average spending) have a positive influence on the tourist flows of the province of residence and maintain this effect throughout the period analyzed, while the price at destination ceases to be a relevant negative factor with the pandemic (greater importance of restrictions and the incidence of COVID).

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