Spain | Exposure of the Spanish economy to the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated severe sanctions represent a significant supply shock, with negative effects on both growth and inflation, through the commodity, financial volatility, confidence and supply chain channels. In the current context, uncertainty is exceptionally high.

Key points

• Key points:
• Spain has limited trade and financial exposure to Russia and Ukraine, but their indirect trade impact may be relevant in specific sectors such as energy and food. Regions with a higher intensity of energy use in their GDP and greater trade openness, with particular exposure to the affected inputs, could be more adversely affected.
• As in trade in goods, exposure in real estate is also very low. Home purchases in Spain by Russians and Ukrainians accounted for slightly less than 5% of those made by foreigners as a whole in the last seven years. The same is true in the tourism sector, where spending by Russian visitors barely reached 2.1% of the total between 2016 and 2019.
• Las políticas públicas van a ser clave en la mitigación de los efectos de la guerra, por ejemplo las dirigidas a contener el impacto del incremento del precio de la electricidad y la gasolina. En ausencia de un pacto de rentas, el desigual impacto de la inflación puede hacer que aumente la conflictividad social.

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