Spain | DANA: Real-time monitoring of the economic impact

Summary

During the week of November 12 to 18, the improvement trend in most spending indicators stopped. Growth rates have shown a similar behavior to that of the previous week, maintaining a negative gap with respect to the evolution observed in the rest of Spain.

Key points

• Key points:
• The recovery of in-person spending carried out in the province of Valencia would have been interrupted two weeks after the DANA. The variation stood at -0.2% year-on-year, relatively in line with what was observed in the previous week, while the gap with respect to the rest of Spain remained stable.
• The stagnation is explained both by the interruption in the trend of improvement in purchases with Spanish cards, which barely changed (+0.4% year-on-year in the week ending November 18), and by the continuation of significant falls (15 .2% year-on-year) in spending with foreign cards.
• The disruption to the improvement in spending was widespread by sector. A certain recovery was only observed in fashion and, to a lesser extent, in automotive and accommodation. Even so, these three activities present the greatest growth differences with respect to the rest of Spain, along with travel and home.
• The growth differential in vehicle registrations between the affected provinces and the rest of Spain narrowed in the week of November 9 to 15. Sales of passenger cars fell 10% year-on-year in Valencia (32% in the rest of Spain), while those of other vehicles increased 7% (23% in the rest).
• Uneven improvement in spending. Greater at the regional than municipal level and high heterogeneity. The weekly recovery rate moderates in Valencia. The most affected municipalities are beginning to recover spending; In others, stagnation remains.

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