Spain | Consumption Outlook. Second half 2020

The restrictions adopted in response to the health crisis and the increase in uncertainty are driving savings to the detriment of consumption, which will fall by -14% in 2020. Spending will rebound by 7% in 2021, driven by the expected recovery of its determinants and the absorption of some of the dammed demand.

Key points

• Key points:
• A peculiarity of the current crisis is that the reduction in spending on services accompanied that on durable goods, which aggravated the adjustment in consumption.
• In the absence of the pandemic, around 650,000 cars would have been registered between January and June, 315,000 more than those registered. Despite the recovery in sales in the second half of 2020, the market will fall by -33% this year (840,000 units), but will grow by around 33% next year in the central scenario (1,115,000 cars).
• There is no turning back on transport electrification. However, for the contribution of the electric vehicle to meeting the decarbonisation objectives to be significant, its deployment must be accelerated and the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation reduced.
• The aftermarket is gaining in importance. The recovery in spending on dealerships, workshops and spare parts is being more energetic than that of aggregate consumption, especially in Internet purchases. All in all, the margin for improvement in the non-presential channel is significant.

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