Spain | Consumption Outlook. First half 2021

The recovery in private consumption will gain momentum as vaccination progresses, the EU recovery package (NGEU) starts to boost demand and households consolidate the absorption of excess savings. Consumer spending will grow by 6.1% in 2021 and 6.8% in 2022.

Key points

• Key points:
• Household consumption has been growing strongly since March, but will not return to pre-crisis levels until the second half of 2022.
• Passenger car registrations fell by 36% between January and May compared to 2019 due to non-industry factors, such as the health crisis, and specific constraints, such as the use of the WLTP protocol for calculating CO2 emissions and the CAFE regulation.
• Although the electrification of transport is progressing, it is lagging behind the European average. MOVES III will help reduce the relative cost of electric vehicles and increase the capillarity of the charging infrastructure. It should bring the market share above 12% by 2022.
• The recovery in mobility, the upturn in purchase intentions, reduced uncertainty and the expected rise in per capita income will increase passenger car sales to 920,000 in 2021 and 1,140,000 in 2022.
• The medium-term challenge of environmental sustainability: meeting the economy's decarbonisation targets while minimising the impact on the automotive sector and its value chain.

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