Spain | Climate change, both a challenge and an opportunity for Spanish tourism

The tourism industry in Spain must adapt to the expected changes in climatic conditions by increasing hotel capacity in the north of the country, improving facilities and infrastructure and diversifying tourist attraction areas, thus ensuring greater growth and long-term sustainability.

Key points

• Key points:
• A recent analysis conducted by BBVA Research, based on historical data, shows that greater climatic comfort is broadly associated with a higher number of hotel overnight stays in Spain, although with differential effects depending on the type of tourism.
• While the coastal areas of the southeast are more vulnerable to climatic conditions, those of the northern coast, mountains and nature are less sensitive, and urban destinations are hardly even affected.
• In the future, rising temperatures would negatively affect tourist demand on the southern and Mediterranean coasts, but would also lead to an increase in the northern provinces, depending on the magnitude of the impact of the climate scenario considered.
• In a low-emissions scenario (temperature increase of 1.8 ºC in 2100), tourism flows would remain virtually unchanged. In the case of moderate global warming (temperature increase of 2.8 ºC), the most likely of the three scenarios considered, the effect of climate on tourism demand would also be limited, with a net drop of 0.6%, although different impacts between provinces are already observed.
• However, the results reveal a significant negative impact under the most severe climate scenario, compatible with temperature increases close to 5 ºC in 2100. In this case, tourist demand could be reduced by 7%.

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