Spain | Catalonia Economic Outlook. Second half 2022

Summary

Catalonia's GDP increased by 5.2% in 2022. We expect an increase of 1.5% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024, which will allow the creation of 151 thousand jobs in the biennium.

Key points

• Key points:
• The most recent information forces to revise the 2022 growth to 5.2% in Catalonia and 5.3% in Spain. However, a lower dynamism is observed in the second half of the year, and therefore, the forecast for 2023 is for a slowdown in the increase of Catalan GDP to 1.5% in 2023.
• The entry into recession in the Eurozone and the exhaustion of the recovery in tourism will make a negative contribution to the growth of external demand in 2023 and 2024. Household spending will be affected by rising prices, increased uncertainty, slowing employment and rising interest rates.
• Activity will gain traction as NGEU funds are executed and uncertainties affecting households and businesses fade, and this will boost Catalan GDP growth in 2024 to 3.6%. By 2024, 151,000 new jobs could be created in Catalonia
• The correction of inflation will continue, and there seem to be no problems in gas supply. Companies and households are better prepared to face a more volatile environment. No imbalances in economic sectors are observed.

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