Spain | Catalonia Economic Outlook. Second half 2021

Catalonia's GDP could grow by 5.3% in 2021. In 2022, regional GDP could accelerate to 5.6%. If the forecasts are met, Catalonia would create some 215,000 new jobs between 2020 and 2022. There is a downward bias on these forecasts.

Key points

• Key points:
• High growth in 2021 (5.3%), but with a downward bias. Consumption acts as a support and is the main driver of strong growth, especially in services.
• Tourism is driving more growth than in other communities. The progress in vaccination and the easing of restrictions are allowing the arrival of visitors. However, urban tourism is weighing down the recovery of visitors to Barcelona.
• Industrial activity and exports of goods recover at a good pace. In response, investment in equipment is improving, but not at a sufficient pace, both private (capital goods, residential construction) and public works tenders. Industrial activity and exports of goods recover at a good pace. In response, investment in equipment is improving, but not at a sufficient pace, both private (capital goods, residential construction) and public works tenders.
• The resolution of bottlenecks is delayed, and there is an increase in the price of transport, raw materials and electricity, as well as a festering inflation. Catalonia's orientation towards services and manufacturing production puts it in a situation of greater exposure to the current risks, and further progress is urgently needed in making changes to make it more resilient.
• In 2022 growth will accelerate to 5.6%, and Catalonia will continue to grow more than Spain as a whole (5.5%). Supported by the existing savings pool, consumption will remain strong. Moreover, tourism will move towards normalisation. This will be particularly noticeable with foreign and urban tourism.

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