Spain | Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2024

Summary

GDP in Castile and Leon could increase by 2.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, which would create 27,000 new jobs in the region in the biennium

Key points

• Key points:
• In 2023, GDP growth could have reached 2.6% (0.1 pp higher than in Spain as a whole), thanks to the strong momentum of industrial production and exports, especially automobiles. This would have allowed the region to recover pre-crisis activity levels by 2023.
• Growth in Social Security enrollment showed very similar advances to those of Spain in 1Q24, with particularly significant increases in some urban areas of the capital.
• GDP could increase by 2.0% in 2024 (Spain 2.1%). The European economy appears to have reached bottom and could show a gradual improvement during the year. The regional economy depends crucially on sustained sales of goods to the eurozone and higher margins may give way to increases in investment and wages.
• The GDP of Castile and Leon is expected to moderate its advance, and growth is projected to reach 1.8% in 2025 (2.0% in Spain). If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate will fall to 8.3% and 27,000 new jobs could be created by 2025.
• In this scenario, Castile and Leon could be the community that experiences the highest GDP per capita growth between 2019 and 2025. Productivity gains make it possible to compensate for the lower dynamism of the labor market and a more unfavorable demographic behavior.

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