Spain | Cantabria Economic Outlook 2021

Summary

Cantabria's GDP could grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022. If the forecasts are met, Cantabria will be the region that recovers the fastest to the pre-crisis level of activity and some 15,000 new jobs would be created between 2020 and 2022. There is a downward bias on these forecasts.

Key points

• Key points:
• High growth in 2021 (5.9%), which will continue in 2022 (5.4%), but with a downward bias. Consumption is the main support for strong growth, especially in services, and employment is recovering, with Social Security enrolment already reaching pre-crisis levels in September.
• The progress in vaccination, the lifting of the state of alarm and the easing of restrictions allowed the arrival of visitors and a good performance of domestic tourism. The foreign segment remains below pre-crisis levels.
• Industrial activity and goods exports recover at a good pace. In addition, housing starts are picking up, but residential construction is not yet accelerating, affected by regulatory uncertainty and costs.
• Bottlenecks are delayed, and there is an increase in the price of transport, raw materials and electricity, as well as an increase in inflation. Energy costs limit the resilience of industrial areas and their investment, especially in regions with higher energy consumption per unit of GDP produced.
• Growth could be around 5.4%. This will allow 15,000 new jobs to be created between 2020 and 2022. Supported by the existing pool of savings, consumption will remain strong. In addition, tourism will move towards normalisation.

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