Spain | Basque Country Economic Outlook 2024

GDP per capita growth in the Basque Country between 2019 and 2025 could double that of Spain as a whole. GDP could increase by 2.0% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025.

Key points

• Key points:
• In 2024, Basque GDP growth could be around 2.0%. This advance is almost three times higher than that of the Eurozone (0.7%), although it is below that of Spain as a whole (2.9%). The lower weight of service exports, a lower contribution from public employment and exports and industry weighed down by the weak growth in the Eurozone explain this performance.
• Growth could accelerate in 2025 to 2.8%, despite the moderation expected in Spain (2.4%). The recovery in European demand and lower input costs are the main factors supporting this scenario. Basque companies will be among those to benefit most from the normalisation of activity in the Eurozone, given their orientation and emphasis on the production of high value-added goods.
• It is necessary to advance in policies that encourage investment, generate certainty and alleviate the lack of human capital. The uncertainty faced by the automotive sector due to electrification, ageing and the provision of affordable housing, among the challenges facing the Basque economy.
• If these forecasts are met, GDP per capita in 2025 would be 4.8 percentage points above the pre-crisis level. This is almost double the increase that would be observed in Spain as a whole and the highest among the communities that started with the highest income in 2019. Moreover, the unemployment rate could fall to 7.1% on average in 2025 and 35,000 new jobs could be created in 2024 and 2025 as a whole.

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