Spain | Asturias Economic Outlook 2022

Asturias's GDP could grow by 5.1% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023. If the forecasts are fulfilled, Asturias could recover the pre-crisis level of GDP in the last quarter of 2022. Between 2021 and 2023, 22.5 thousand new jobs. The short-term bias will depend on geopolitical and health risks.

Key points

• Key points:
• Improving goods exports, consumption and a good tone of affiliation boosted the recovery in 2021. It is estimated that GDP could have risen by 5.1%.
• The foreign goods sector and industrial production (in the first half) have been more dynamic than in the country as a whole. But the recovery in consumption is weaker. In addition, investment in equipment is also slowing down, affected by uncertainties, supply problems, bottlenecks in international trade, and energy and raw material prices.
• In 2022, GDP growth is expected to stand at 5.1%, while in 2023 activity could increase by 4.0%. The control of the pandemic, the use of the savings stored by the families, the impulse in the execution of the NGEU funds and a high productive capacity without using would compensate the effects of the bottlenecks and the increase in energy prices.
• Asturias could recover the pre-crisis level of GDP at the end of 2022, at the same time as the Spanish economy as a whole. But it will advance faster in terms of GDP per capita, and it is possible that it will reach the pre-crisis level as soon as this year.
• The short-term bias will depend on the impact of the realization of geopolitical risks and the progression of contagions. The risks associated with higher inflation, the response of central banks and geopoliticians are beginning to take on importance. In addition, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of the funds related to the NGEU. In the medium term, the bias will depend on the reforms that are adopted in the coming months.

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