Spain | Andalusia Economic Outlook. Second Half 2024

Summary

Andalusia's GDP will grow by 2.7% in both 2024 and 2025. This will create 154 thousand jobs and reduce the unemployment rate to 16.0% in 2025.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP growth in 2024 would be 2.7% (2.9% in Spain). This reflects improvements in competitiveness, particularly in the services sector; increases in the workforce. This, despite the effects of the drought and the burden that the production of capital goods represents for the industry.
• Towards 2025, progress could remain high, at 2.7% (2.4% in Spain). The effects of the drought are beginning to reverse, which should allow for a greater boost in agricultural GVA next year. Food exports are already showing signs of recovery and investment could benefit from the fall in interest rates and greater European demand.
• It is necessary to advance policies that encourage investment, generate certainty and alleviate the lack of human capital. The provision of housing at affordable prices and the possible limits to the growth of the tourism sector, among the challenges facing the Andalusian economy.
• If these forecasts are met, in 2025 GDP per capita would exceed the pre-crisis level by 3.6 percentage points, almost one point above the progress that would be observed in the same period in Spain as a whole. In addition, the unemployment rate will be reduced to 16.0% on average in 2025 and 154,000 new jobs can be created in 2024 and 2025 as a whole.

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