Regional Analysis Spain. Third quarter 2020

The greater impact of restrictions on domestic demand, the reduction of consumption on domestically produced goods and services (in particular, social consumption) and the deployment of the tourism sector introduce a downward revision of growth in all the Autonomous Communities and especially on the Mediterranean coast.

Key points

• Key points:
• The impact of the crisis has been significant, heterogeneous and different from the 2008 financial crisis
• The regions which are more dependent on social consumption (the islands and the Mediterranean coast) could have a more negative evolution than the average in 2020. On the other hand, the ones which are most dependent on the agricultural sector and those in the north could be less affected and grow above the average
• In 2021, the return to normality should favor touristic regions, which are more oriented to the social consumption sectors
• The recovery of the EMU could especially benefit exporting communities, particularly in the agri-food sector
• The risks remain. The most important one is concerned with controlling the pandemic and its differential effect on economic activity

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