Regional Analysis Spain. Fourth quarter 2020

Summary

In 2020, the GDP forecast is improved in Cantabria, Galicia, the Valencian Community and Andalusia; but this is offset by less dynamism in Aragon, Madrid, Navarra and the Basque Country. In 2021, the reduction in growth is generalized, but somewhat greater in Madrid, Andalusia, Catalonia, the Valencian Community and Navarra

Key points

• Key points:
• The upward revisions in 2020 are mainly explained by the boost in exports of goods and industrial activity. In Andalusia, household spending is also doing well.
• The downward revisions derive from the contraction in spending in the Autonomous Regions most affected by the pandemic
• In 2021 the downward revision is widespread and is caused by the resurgence of the COVID in EMU and Spain, the weakness in the recovery of investment and the exhaustion of the demand impulses.
• The pandemic explains why the revision for 2021 is greater in Madrid, Andalusia, Catalonia, Navarre and the Valencian Community
• The expectation of a vaccine that could favour tourism by mid 2021 supports a lesser revision of the forecasts in the Balearic and Canary Islands, which will show a greater recovery

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