Regional Analysis Spain. First quarter 2020

Summary

The ranking in the growth of 2019 remains unchanged: Madrid, Murcia, Castilla-La Mancha and Navarra would have led the progress of the activity the previous year. Forward, the centre would continue to lead the dynamism.

Key points

• Key points:
• In 2019, there are small changes in the forecast due to the generalized stabilization of growth in the second part of the year, few variations in the short-term information and a minor revision of the Regional Accounting in the 2019 GDP growth.
• Uncertainty may be having a limited impact on domestic demand. Spending would have picked up in the second half of the year, most intensely in Madrid and the Mediterranean. On the other hand, investment and exports are supporting some of the central-northern regions.
• Moving forward, the dynamics of external demand for goods and the recovery of investment will be more noticeable on the 2020 path, limiting the effects of the slowdown in domestic demand, while in 2021, the general improvement in external demand will boost exporting Autonomous Regions, both for goods and, to a lesser extent, for services.
• Among the factors that could affect this recovery is uncertainty. This is concentrated in four areas: the global environment, the one that affects some productive sectors such as the automobile, real estate and tourism, the one specific to Catalonia and the one related to economic policy.

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