Portugal | The 2019 and 2020 growth forecast is raised

Summary

Growth for 2019 and 2020 would stand at approximately 1.7%YoY, 2 pp above that previously estimated in both cases. In 2019, it is expected that the slowdown in consumption will be offset by the increase observed in investment, whilst next year, improved exports should continue against a backdrop of recovery of global demand

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP growth received a surprise upward review in 1Q19, boosted by investment
• Growth would have stood at approximately 0.4% QoQ in 2Q19, despite the uncertainty
• The recovery will continue to contribute to reducing the public deficit until the balance (0.0% of GDP) is attained at the end of the year
• Residential investment remains high, although it decelerates with respect to what was observed at the end of 2018

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