Peru | The recovery of the non-primary component of GDP is consolidating

Summary

Activity advanced 3.4% year-on-year in October. By productive sectors, the behavior of the non-primary component of GDP stood out, which registered an expansion of 4.2% and within this the sustained improvement of non-primary manufacturing (greater manufacturing of consumer and capital goods), construction and trade.

Key points

• Key points:
• On the primary component side, it contracted (-0.6%). Metallic mining activity fell 1.9%, while the year-on-year decline in fishing production was accentuated because the comparison base was high. In contrast, agricultural activity grew 13.4% because the harvested area increased and weather conditions were favorable in some regions of the country.
• In the sequential analysis and taking as a reference the seasonally corrected GDP published by the INEI, production remained practically unchanged in October (+0.02%) compared to the level reached the previous month. In a year in which this level remains unchanged for the rest of the year (carry over), the Peruvian economy would grow 2.8% in 2024.
• In the balance of the first indicators for November, they suggest that activity would have registered somewhat higher interannual growth in November than in October, consistent with our forecast that GDP will advance 3.1% in 2024.

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