Peru | Temporary slowdown in February due to base effect

Summary

In February, GDP grew 2.7% year-on-year, below the market consensus (3.4%), affected by a negative base effect. The non-primary component grew 2.5%, with construction being the most notable. The primary component grew 2.3%, driven by fishing and agriculture. Mining contracted due to lower gold and zinc production.

Key points

• Key points:
• The non-primary component grew 2.5% in February, with construction (5.9%) standing out due to higher cement consumption. Services and trade also expanded. In contrast, non-primary manufacturing fell 1.8% due to lower production of consumer goods.
• Primary activities grew 2.3% in February, driven by fishing (24.6%) and agriculture (4.4%). Increased anchovy catches boosted primary manufacturing (15.1%). In contrast, metal mining contracted due to lower gold and zinc production.
• In February, seasonally adjusted GDP contracted 0.1% compared to January, reflecting a subdued start to the year. Carryover to the second month of the year stood at 2.1%, below the monthly average for the last quarter of 2024 (around 1.0%).
• On balance, the indicators for March 2025 suggest an acceleration of economic growth, favored by a positive calendar effect (Easter is celebrated in April, unlike 2024, when it took place in March).
• At BBVA Research, we project growth of around 4.0% for the first quarter and 3.1% for the year. However, it should be noted that the international environment has become more complex due to trade tensions between the world's major economies. For now, the impacts on the Peruvian economy are relatively limited, but it is also true that uncertainty linked to a more confrontational external environment remains high.

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