Peru | Real-time analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on consumption (up to July 26)

Summary

In July, the BBVA consumption indicator grew 17.1% in real terms with respect to the same month of 2019. The increase in household spending coincides with the increase in household liquidity (release of CTS and enabling new withdrawals from pension funds), and the improvement of health indicators.

Key points

• Key points:
• The increase in household spending is supported by the increase in household liquidity in recent months after the full release of the Compensation for Time of Service (CTS, an unemployment protection scheme) deposits and new withdrawals from pension funds, as well as the improvement in health indicators and the relaxation of isolation measures.
• The share of the on-line channel in total purchases was 41% (before the pandemic only 20% of transactions were made through this channel).
• The relaxation of isolation measures helped consolidate the recovery of spending on transportation, restaurants and fashion in July, and encouraged spending on hospitality and tourism-related items (tickets and excursions), with the latter close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Spending on services such as entertainment, bars, and beauty salons also tends to improve, although it still lags behind.
• The BBVA Research consumption indicator shows that in the second quarter of 2021 consumption continued to recover due to the low YoY comparison base (strict quarantine in April 2020 and partial easing of the quarantine in May and June).

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