Peru | Real-time analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on consumption (up to August 23)

In August, the BBVA consumption indicator grew 25% in real terms with respect to the same month of 2019. The increase in household spending coincides with the increase in household liquidity, relaxation of sanitary isolation measures and further progress in the vaccination process.

Key points

• Key points:
• The increase in household spending follows the increase in household liquidity in recent months after the decision to allow the withdrawal of the Compensation for Time of Service (CTS, an unemployment protection scheme) deposits and new withdrawals from pension funds, as well as the relaxation of isolation measures, the improvement in health indicators, and the continued increase in the vaccinated population.
• The share of the on-line channel in total purchases was 38% (before the pandemic only 20% of transactions were made through this channel).
• The relaxation of isolation measures helped continued growth in spending on transportation, restaurants and fashion and as well as on lodging, while spending related to tourism (tickets and excursions) approaches pre-pandemic levels.
• Spending on services such as entertainment, bars, and beauty salons also tends to improve, although it still lags behind.
• BBVA Research's consumption indicator suggests that, in 3Q-21, household consumption spending will continue to grow but at a slower rate than that observed in 2Q-21, mainly due to the fact that the YoY comparison base is starting to normalize (focused quarantines since July 2020 and the resumption of activities in several sectors as part of Phase 3 of the reopening of the economy).

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