Peru | Real-time analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on consumption in Nov. 2021

Summary

In November, the BBVA consumption indicator grew 11.4% with respect to the same month of 2019 (15.1% October). Compared to November 2020, the indicator grew 18.2%, still favored by a low comparison base (contained spending in 2020 due to isolation and social distancing measures).

Key points

• Key points:
• Despite the slowdown, household spending with cards continues at a good pace due to the support of: (i) the gradual recovery of the economy and employment, (ii) the relative containment of the pandemic that has induced more confidence to mobilize and relax capacity restrictions (greater commercial activity), and (iii) the greater availability of liquidity that families have had (withdrawals from pension and unemployment protection funds).
• The share of the on-line channel in total purchases was 41% (before the pandemic only 20% of transactions were made through this channel).
• The relaxation of isolation measures has favored continuous spending growth on transportation, restaurants and fashion and as well as on lodging and tourism-related services (tickets and excursions) that are approaching pre-pandemic levels.
• The BBVA consumption index (big data) suggests that in 4Q21 household consumption spending continued to grow but at a slower rate than that observed in 3Q21, mainly due to the fact that the YoY comparison base is starting to normalize.

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