Peru. Output rebounds in September somewhat more than expected

Summary

Output rose 2,7%YoY, its highest pace of growth in sixth months. The main driver was the set of non-primary activities, in particular Services and Commerce. These two sectors account for about half of GDP, they expand at a rate which usually does not have drastic fluctuations, and are activities closely linked to the behavior of domestic demand. Hence, their growth trend is informative about output’s. In September, the pace of growth in these two sectors seems to have started to trend upwards. If this consolidates, it would turn into an important support for economic activity. This suggests output would show better prints from now on compared to those in the second and third quarters. However, this recovery will be moderate because primary sectors remain weak, which is consistent with our forecast that economic activity will increase by around 2,6% in 2014.

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