Peru | Normalisation of economic activity continues, surprising positively in September

Summary

Output fell by 6,9% YoY in September. Available indicators for October suggest that the normalisation of economic activity has continued. Accelerating this process will require, among other things, both limiting sanitation and political uncertainty and boosting public investment.

Key points

• Key points:
• Output contraction in September is the lowest since the health crisis began, it is similar to what we anticipated, but it positively surprised market consensus (-7,8%).
• This contraction was widespread by productive sectors, with few exceptions such as some services (financial, telecommunications) that have continued to grow throughout the health crisis and construction
• With this result, GDP would have fallen by 9,5% YoY in the third quarter.
• Available indicators for October, which suggest that the normalisation of economic activity continues, and the trends observed in recent months point to improving GDP prints in the short term.
• However, in a context in which there are still sectors that cannot operate and in which demand is weak, we estimate that these YoY figures will continue to be negative in the fourth quarter of the year.Accelerating economic activity normalisation will require, among other things, both limiting sanitation and political uncertainty -which will favour private spending- and boosting public investment.

Geographies

Topics

Tags