Peru | Inflation surprises downwards again

Summary

Inflation decreased 0.32% m/m in October. During the month, the decrease in the prices of some foods stood out after the supply shocks they faced in recent months dissipated.

Key points

• Key points:
• The YoY rate fell from 5.0% in September to 4.3% in October, favored by a high comparison base (inflation in September 2022 was 0.35% m/m).
• The core inflation indicator, in year-on-year terms, fell to 3.3% (September: 3.6%).
• At BBVA Research we estimate that inflation will continue to decline, supported by a high year-on-year comparison base, weak activity, and a restrictive monetary position.
• Lower inflationary pressures and the stagnation of economic activity suggest that the Central Bank will continue to cut its reference interest rate in November.

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