Peru | Inflation kept going up in September, but more moderately

Summary

YoY inflation went up to 5,2% in September, but we believe it is close to peak and that it will end the year somewhat below 5,0%.

Key points

• Key points:
• Inflation thus continues to reflect the impact of higher international prices for food supplies and oil, as well as the depreciation of the local currency.
• Inflation in September (0,40% MoM) also reflected the readjustment of the price of water and the seasonality in the supply of some foods
• Inflation in year-on-year terms increased again, from 5,0% in August to 5,2%, while inflation excluding food and energy went up from 2,4% in August to 2,6%.
• If the foreign exchange ends the year not so far from its current level, we foresee YoY inflation going down in the last bimester of 2021, ending the year somewhat below 5,0%.
• This forecast main risk is the international price of fuels, which has resumed its upward trend.

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