Peru | GDP shows better performance in February, positively surprising the market

GDP grew 2.8% YoY in February. This result was influenced by the additional day of activity due to the fact that 2024 is a leap year and the low YoY comparison base. The growth of the mining sector and some sectors of non-primary GDP stood out.

Key points

• Key points:
• We highlight the expansion of the mining sector, which includes the larger extraction of copper and molybdenum. In contrast, the agricultural and fishing sectors contracted in a context of unfavorable climatic conditions.
• For its part, non-primary GDP grew 2.7% (January: 2.4%). The positive dynamics of the construction sector continued during the month, associated with the push of public investment; The performance of the commerce sector and some branches of the services sector was also positive.
• The indicators available for March suggest that activity lost dynamism in that month, surely influenced by the Easter holiday, which this year was celebrated in March and not in April as in 2023.
• According to our estimates, the year-on-year growth in GDP is likely to be greater in the following quarters of the year. This forecast considers that (i) weather conditions have normalized, which will benefit mainly agriculture and fishing from now on; (ii) public investment will continue to show interesting growth rates; (iii) the environment will become increasingly conducive to spending by families and companies (more contained inflation and declining interest rates); (iv) there will be some positive impact from the greater availability of resources after enabling a new withdrawal of private pension funds; and (iv) business confidence has improved, now in positive territory, something that has not happened for three years.

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