Peru | GDP remains strong in May due to primary activities (fishing)

GDP grew 5.0% y/y in May. The expansion of the fishing sector and primary manufacturing stood out (together they reflect the effect of the greater catch of anchovy). We estimate that the direct contribution of this factor to GDP growth is 2.5 percentage points, which represents half of the expansion rate for the month.

Key points

• Key points:
• For its part, non-primary GDP grew 2.7%. Compared to the March-April two-month period, the acceleration of the construction sector stood out, mainly associated with the push for public investment. He also highlighted the behavior of the transportation sector. On the other hand, non-primary manufacturing showed a growth of 1.1%.
• The three-month moving average of the growth rate (analysis that allows reducing the volatility of monthly growth), shows that GDP has been growing 3.4%, with an acceleration of primary activities (7.9% ), while non-primary GDP maintains a more moderate growth rate (2.1%).
• The indicators available for June suggest that activity reduced its rate of expansion. The momentum of the fishing sector fades, public investment lost dynamism and domestic cement consumption contracted a little more in June. Furthermore, the investment indicator prepared by BBVA Research accentuated its decline in June. However, the moderation in June will be tempered by an improvement in household spending. As a reflection of this, the Big Data Consumer Index prepared by BBVA showed an acceleration in said month (impact of the greater availability of liquidity from withdrawals of private pension funds).
• We estimate that GDP for the second quarter would have grown between 4.0% and 4.5% and we maintain our growth forecast of 2.9% for this year.

Authors

Geographies

Topics

Tags