Peru | GDP moderates in August, influenced by the lower number of days worked

After the good result in July, activity advanced 3.5% year-on-year in August. The performance of the activity continues to be relatively positive if one considers that in August of this year there were two fewer working days compared to the same month last year.

Key points

• Key points:
• By productive sectors, August highlighted the behavior of the primary component of GDP due to the strong expansion of the mining sector. On the contrary, fishing registered a significant decline, which was influenced by the high interannual comparison base.
• The non-primary component, for its part, grew 3.3%, highlighting construction, non-primary manufacturing production related to family consumption, and some branches of services linked to consumption and tourism.
• The indicators available for September suggest that the pace of expansion of activity would have moderated that month.
• In our base scenario we continue to forecast that GDP will grow between 3.0% and 3.5% year-on-year in the second half of the year (2.5% in the first half), supported, for example, by higher household consumption associated with withdrawal of pension funds, in the decrease in interest rates, and in the gradual consolidation of business expectations in the optimistic range, factors that favor a better performance of spending carried out by the private sector. With this, the Peruvian economy would grow 2.9% in 2024, with a bias that this figure could be somewhat higher.

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