Peru | February's year-on-year growth accelerated due to a low comparison base

Summary

Economic activity grew 4.9% YoY in February, accelerating from the previous month (January: 2.9%) but below the market consensus (5,9%), this result was favored by a low base of comparison, as isolation measures were tightened in February 2021 due to the pandemic.

Key points

• Key points:
• The non-primary component grew 6.5% year-on-year. The most dynamic sectors within were Accommodation and Restaurants, Transportation and Telecommunications.
• On the other hand, the primary component of GDP fell -0.7%. In particular, the Fishing sector and Metallic Mining experienced significant contractions, in the latter case due to the impact of the protests carried out by the communities in the areas of influence of the mining operations.
• In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy stagnated in February. According to the seasonally adjusted series reported by the INEI, production expanded 0.03% compared to January. It should be noted that using the seasonally adjusted GDP data, we estimate the carryover will be 2.8% in 2022.
• The most frequent indicators available for March show that economic activity is losing dynamism.
• Hacia adelante la actividad se verá afectada por los conflictos sociales, una inflación alta que seguirá erosionando los ingresos de las familias, incremento de las tasas de interés, condiciones financieras más ajustadas y la continuidad del ruido político. En ese contexto mantenemos el crecimiento de 2% para este año.

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