Peru | Economic downturn deepens in April

Summary

In April, GDP contracted by 40.5% YoY compared to the same month last year. Among the main components of GDP, the fall was almost general.

Key points

• Key points:
• Available activity indicators suggest that May would also have seen a significant decline in GDP.
• However, more frequent indicators indicate a gradual recovery in productive activity.
• Given these trends, and assuming that no more compulsory social confinements are implemented, the second quarter may be the most complicated one of the year.
• We maintain our central forecast for the year of a 15%YoY contraction in GDP, and a 6.5%YoY rebound by 2021 that will not be sufficient to recover the size of the economy that we had at the end of last year.

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