Peru | Dynamic activity continued in January

Summary

GDP grew 4.1% year-on-year in January. By productive sector, the primary component stood out (up 4.4%) due to the strong expansion of the fishing sector and the resulting expansion of primary manufacturing. The non-primary component grew 3.2%.

Key points

• Key points:
• In the sequential analysis, using the seasonally adjusted GDP published by INEI, production expanded 0.3% in January compared to the previous month, exceeding the contraction observed the previous month.
• The available activity indicators for February 2025 point to a slower pace, amid fewer working days. Imports of consumer goods slowed from 27.8% in January to 9.3% in February, while the private consumption indicator compiled by BBVA Research increased 5.2% in February compared to 9.6% in January. This performance is partly explained by a calendar effect: last year was a leap year, so February 2024 had an additional working day.
• On the investment side, FOB imports of capital goods (such as construction materials and transportation equipment) grew 20.0% according to SUNAT data (January: 24.5%), accumulating eleven consecutive months of growth, while public investment moderated, registering an increase of 9.3% (compared to 42.7% in January).
• Taking these indicators into account, economic activity continues to perform well so far this year, which leads us to maintain the upward bias in our growth forecast for 2025, currently at 2.7%, but which will be updated tomorrow.

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