Peru | Activity continues to contract, although the worst seems to be behind

Summary

In May, GDP contracted by 32.8% YoY, reflecting the isolation measures implemented since mid-March to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

Key points

• Key points:
• Some more frequent indicators indicate that a gradual recovery in productive activity is taking place.
• Given these trends, and assuming that no more mandatory social confinements are implemented, the second quarter may be the most complicated one of the year.
• In this quarter, in particular, we estimate that there will be a general fall in spending. For instance, we expect a sharp deterioration in private investment and exports.
• In the second half of 2020, the behavior of GDP will depend more on the performance of aggregate demand.

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