Peru | Activity accelerated in September, but indicators suggest slower momentum in 4Q21

Summary

Economic activity grew 9.7% year-on-year in September, still a high rate due to a low comparison base. In an analysis comparing GDP figures for 2021 with those for 2019 (pre-health crisis situation), activity accelerated to 3.1% (August: 1.6%), the highest growth rate in 2021 so far.

Key points

• Key points:
• The performance of non-primary GDP stood out in September, which continued to accelerate with respect to the same month of 2019. Within this category, services such as financial and telecommunications, construction activity and non-primary manufacturing continued to be very dynamic.
• In seasonally adjusted terms, the official statistics institute indicates that production increased 1.3% in the month (with respect to the previous month), while in the previous three months it advanced at an average monthly rate of 0.8%.
• Incorporating the September result, we estimate economic activity advanced 11.5% in the third quarter compared to the same period of 2020, while in the comparison with the third quarter of 2019 (pre-health crisis situation) it grew 1.7%.
• Available indicators suggest that the economy's expansion trend continues at the beginning of the fourth quarter. However, the momentum seems to diminish, as suggested by the electricity production figures, especially in early November, and the internal consumption of cement.

Geographies

Topics

Tags