Spain | Outlook for the Aragonese economy

Summary

Aragon's GDP is expected to grow by 3,3% in 2022, although the current economic slowdown will continue in the coming quarters. Regional GDP is expected to grow by 0,6% in 2023, due to the fall in European demand, higher energy and transport prices, and higher financing costs.

Key points

• Key points:
• If the scenario is fulfilled, the unemployment rate would remain at around 9%, 7,900 jobs would be created in 2022 and 2023 as a whole, and pre-pandemic GDP per capita would be recovered in 2023.
• Aragonese families and companies face this environment in a better position, with less debt, more assets and without imbalances having accumulated in certain sectors. But the greater exposure to the automobile sector and less dynamic exports of goods, together with the lesser importance of national tourism, justify a negative growth differential compared with Spain as a whole.
• The containment of inflation, the obstacles to investment that may hinder competitiveness or slow down the impact of the NGEU funds, the lack of adequate labour to cover business needs or the still high weight of temporary contracts in new hires, are the main risks for the Aragonese economy. Accelerating the implementation of the NGEU-related funds is key, and in the medium term the bias will depend on the reforms to be adopted in the coming months.

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