Monthly inflation in February stood at 1.15%, taking the annual print up to 4.36%.

The National Statistics Department (DANE) released CPI data for February. According to the report, February’s print stood at 1.15% MoM, higher than both the market consensus and our own expectations (0.65% MoM and 0.61% MoM, respectively). In February, the main drivers of inflation were education (4.35% MoM), communications (2.40% MoM) and food inflation (1.81%) which all displayed higher than expected increases. On the other hand, leisure was the only group to register a negative print (-0.68% MoM). These results brought the annual inflation up to 4.36% YoY, above the upper bound of BanRep’s inflation rate target range (2%-4%). As regards core inflation, CPI excluding food stood at 3.42%, an increase of 22bp vs. the previous month. In our view, February’s print may have a negative impact on inflation expectations, although we continue to expect a moderation of annual inflation prints during the second half of the year.

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