Mexico | Windfall public income estimated for 2022 seems very optimistic

Summary

For 2022 the Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 397,600 million (1.4% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 397,840 million (1.4% of GDP) above budget.

Key points

• Key points:
• The government agency expects total public revenue to be MXN 560,364 million (1.9% of GDP) above budget. This windfall income is mainly due to the additional expected oil-related income, the higher tax revenue by MXN 61,012 million and more income from institutions and firms other than Pemex by MXN 36,700 million.
• Nevertheless, when considering that oil-related income was MXN 212,128 million above budget and tax revenue below it by MXN 81,193 million during January-September, the Ministry of Finance’s forecasts seem relatively optimistic.
• This is the case because oil-related income and tax revenue would have to be above budget by MXN 185,712 million and MXN 142,205 million during the fourth quarter, respectively.

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