Mexico | Volatility in remittances, fall 4.6%. At risk due to US elections?

Summary

Remittances show high volatility in the first 9 months of 2024: 5 months with growth and 4 months with falls. Possibly, the tense electoral environment in the US has an impact on the flow of new migrants and the migrant population residing in that country.

Key points

• Key points:
• In September, 5,359 million dollars arrived in Mexico in the form of remittances, which represents a 4.6% drop at an annual rate.
• Most Trump supporters are in favor of the mass deportation of undocumented migrants, and do not agree with receiving migrants or refugees. As points of agreement, both Trump and Harris supporters are in favor of improving security along the border and admitting high-skilled migrants.
• The elections in the United States are taking place in a context in which migratory encounters on the southern border of that country are at their lowest levels for more than three years. In September 2024, 53,900 encounters with immigration authorities were recorded, which is equivalent to a fifth of the migratory flow that arrived in December 2023.
• The US economy is the main driver of remittances to Mexico, regardless of Democratic or Republican administrations. In the four years of President Trump's administration, remittances received by Mexico reported an increase of more than 50% in dollars.

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